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Solar share - Solar growth - Off-grid solar

The renewables share will triple from 15% today to 46% by the end of the forecast period. Within renewables, the large increase will be driven by solar and wind, which will see 17-fold and 10-fold increases in primary energy supply towards 2050, respectively. Solar will reach 17% and wind 11% of the global primary energy mix in 2050, with further growth expected beyond mid-century. Bioenergy and hydropower will also grow, in both relative and absolute terms.

(Source: DNV, 2023, Energy Transition Outlook) - All topics ↑

By mid-century, solar will see a a 13-fold growth, representing 54% of global generation capacity but only accounting for 39% of on-grid electricity due to low-capacity factors. Cost reductions are the main driver of solar’s proliferation, with the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) expected to drop to an average around USD 21/MWh by 2050 from their present level of USD 41/MWh. Concurrently, unit investment costs are forecast to decrease to USD 560/kW by 2050.

(Source: DNV, 2023, Energy Transition Outlook) - All topics ↑

By 2050, over 3 TW of off-grid solar will be dedicated to hydrogen production, mainly in Greater China (40%), Europe (26%), and North America (16%). A further 137 GW will be located in remote regions in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian Subcontinent, delivering life-changing electricity access for hundreds of millions of people.

(Source: DNV, 2023, Energy Transition Outlook) - All topics ↑

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